QLD:Tropical cyclone may hit by Xmas

AAP General News (Australia)
12-21-2011
QLD:Tropical cyclone may hit by Xmas

By Darren Cartwright

BRISBANE, Dec 21 AAP - Two cyclones are brewing off the Australian coast and one is
less than 300 kilometres from Darwin.

Senior meteorologist for the Weather Channel Tom Saunders said a cyclone over the Coral
Sea was unlikely to cause any major problems.

But a tropical low forming off the Northern Territory coast, 250km from Darwin, was
unpredictable.

Mr Saunders told AAP the tropical low did not fit any weather models and it was a case
of waiting to see if it became more aggressive and in which direction it would travel.

He said it would move in a northerly direction over the few days but after that "where
it heads and how intense it becomes is unpredictable".

"None of the models, which help us forecast the movement and intensity of weather systems,
agree where it's going to be or what intensity," Mr Saunders told AAP.

"The one thing the models do agree on is it is going to intensify over the next few days.

"There is a chance it will form a cyclone ... and if it does, we don't know where it's
going to move."

Mr Saunders said up to 16 cyclones were expected this summer.

He said the one forming over the Coral Sea would be the second in recent weeks and
would track south between Australia and New Caledonia.

"It's 1000 kilometres off the coast," Mr Saunders said.

"There's already been one in the Indian Ocean so this one will be the second, and a
third tropical low (off the Northern Territory coast) may be number three."

The northern part of Australia typically experiences cyclones each season, which lasts
until April.

On Christmas Eve in 1974, Cyclone Tracy devastated much of Darwin and killed 71 people.

AAP dac/afr

KEYWORD: CYCLONE

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